Wahlprognosen von @twittprognosis
@twittprognosis?
Aus deren Tweets kann man entnehmen:
- Team aus Frankreich und Deutschland
- non-profit, aber kostendeckend
- Forschungsgruppe ist selbst Primärquelle, d.h. erhebt Daten selbst
- Datenerhebung via
- Trefferquoten:
- besser als alle anderen (laut eigener Aussage) bei:
- Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2011
- Referendum in Baden-Württemberg
- Landtagswahl Saarland 2012
- bei Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2011 war lediglich die INFO GmbH besser
- und: "Wollt ihr eine Prognose für ein bestimmtes Gebiet? Wir suchen euch die Daten heraus und legen detailliert dar, wie unsere Prognose aussieht!"
Schleswig-Holstein
| VÖ-Datum
|
CDU
|
SPD
|
GRÜNE
|
PIRATEN
|
FDP
|
LINKE
|
SSW
|
Fr. Wähler
|
Sonstige
|
| 20120310
|
35,0
|
33,0
|
12,5
|
8,5
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
1,5
|
0,5
|
| 20120204
|
34,5
|
31,0
|
13,5
|
10,0
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
|
2,0
|
| 20111106
|
26,0
|
34,5
|
18,0
|
11,0
|
1,5
|
2,0
|
2,0
|
|
5,0
|
| 20110930
|
26,5
|
36,0
|
18,0
|
5,5
|
2,5
|
2,5
|
2,5
|
|
6,5
|
| 20110917
|
26,5
|
36,5
|
12,5
|
3,5
|
4,0
|
3,5
|
4,0
|
|
9,5
|
| 20110618
|
30,0
|
30,0
|
24,0
|
|
4,0
|
2,5
|
5,0
|
|
4,5
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen
| VÖ-Datum
|
CDU
|
SPD
|
GRÜNE
|
PIRATEN
|
LINKE
|
FDP
|
ProNRW
|
Sonstige
|
| 20120330
|
30,0
|
38,0
|
13,0
|
6,5
|
4,0
|
2,5
|
1,5
|
4,5
|
| 20120313
|
33,0
|
35,0
|
16,0
|
3,5
|
4,5
|
2,5
|
|
5,5
|
| 20120214
|
32,5
|
30,5
|
16,5
|
5,5
|
4,5
|
2,5
|
2,0
|
6,0
|
| 20110708
|
35,0
|
32,0
|
24,5
|
|
3,5
|
4,0
|
|
1,0
|
Bundestag
| VÖ-Datum
|
CDU/CSU
|
SPD
|
GRÜNE
|
LINKE
|
PIRATEN
|
FDP
|
Fr. Wähler
|
NPD
|
Sonstige
|
| 20120330
|
33,5
|
28,5
|
11,0
|
9,0
|
8,5
|
3,5
|
2,5
|
1,5
|
2,0
|
| 20120228
|
32,5
|
27,5
|
12,0
|
9,0
|
10,5
|
3,0
|
2,5
|
1,0
|
2,0
|
| 20120130
|
32,0
|
29,0
|
14,0
|
8,5
|
7,5
|
3,5
|
2,5
|
1,5
|
1,5%
|
| 20111228
|
30,5
|
28,5
|
14,0
|
9,0
|
8,5
|
3,5
|
2,0
|
2,0
|
4,0
|
| 20111127
|
30,5
|
29,0
|
15,5
|
9,0
|
7,0
|
4,0
|
|
2,0
|
3,0
|
| 20111029
|
29,0
|
28,0
|
16,0
|
8,5
|
8,0
|
4,0
|
|
2,5
|
4,0
|
| 20110930
|
30,5
|
28,5
|
18,0
|
9,0
|
3,5
|
5,0
|
|
3,0
|
2,5
|
| 20110830
|
31,0
|
26,5
|
20,0
|
9,5
|
2,0
|
5,0
|
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
| 20110730
|
31,0
|
25,5
|
21,0
|
10,0
|
2,0
|
5,0
|
|
|
5,5
|
| 20110618
|
29,5
|
23,5
|
23,0
|
10,5
|
2,0
|
5,0
|
|
|
6,5
|
| 20110630
|
30,5
|
24,5
|
22,0
|
10,0
|
2,0
|
5,5
|
|
|
5,5
|
Europaparlament
Saarland
| VÖ-Datum
|
CDU
|
SPD
|
LINKE
|
GRÜNE
|
PIRATEN
|
FDP
|
Fr. Wähler
|
NPD
|
Familie
|
Sonstige
|
| 20120323
|
33,0
|
33,0
|
17,0
|
6,0
|
5,0
|
1,5
|
1,0
|
1,5
|
1,5
|
0,5
|
| 20120319
|
32,0
|
32,5
|
18,5
|
6,0
|
5,0
|
1,0
|
|
2,0
|
2,0
|
1,0
|
| 20120315
|
31,5
|
32,0
|
19,5
|
6,0
|
5,0
|
1,5
|
|
1,5
|
1,0
|
2,0
|
| 20120309
|
31,5
|
32,0
|
20,5
|
6,5
|
4,5
|
< 1
|
|
1,5
|
1,0
|
2,5
|
| 20120306
|
31,0
|
30,5
|
20,5
|
7,0
|
6,0
|
1,5
|
|
1,5
|
1,0
|
1,0
|
| 20120223
|
32,0
|
32,5
|
17,0
|
7,0
|
5,0
|
2,0
|
1,5
|
1,0
|
1,0
|
1,0
|
| 20120221
|
32,0
|
31,5
|
17,5
|
8,5
|
6,5
|
2,5
|
|
|
|
1,5
|
| 20120214
|
32,5
|
32,0
|
18,0
|
7,0
|
7,0
|
2,5
|
1,0
|
|
|
0,0
|
| 20120211
|
32,5
|
31,5
|
18,5
|
7,0
|
6,5
|
1,5
|
|
|
1,5
|
1,0
|
| 20120129
|
30,0
|
33,5
|
17,0
|
8,0
|
6,5
|
3,5
|
|
|
|
1,5
|
| 20120119
|
33,5
|
35,0
|
11,0
|
4,0
|
8,0
|
4,5
|
1,0
|
1,0
|
2,0
|
|
| 20120106
|
33,5
|
35,0
|
11,5
|
4,0
|
7,0
|
4,0
|
1,0
|
1,0
|
2,0
|
1,0
|
| 20111015
|
30,0
|
35,5
|
13,5
|
13,0
|
3,0
|
2,0
|
|
1,0
|
1,5
|
0,5
|
